LET US NOW REACT TO THE 86th OSCAR NOMINATIONS

Adams in! Hanks out! A kingly two nominations for the wonderful and gorgeously-appointed Inside Llewyn Davis! Since the whole thing is much pleasanter when you just treat it as a game, I'll share my score: a dismal 88/122 (80/107 without the shorts; 37/44 on the Big 8). It was a hard year to predict, but not that hard.

But seriously, two nominations for Inside Llewyn Davis is fucking bullshit.

Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street

I predicted only eight films, of which all eight were nominated. Missed: Her

Non-binding prediction: 12 Years a Slave

The bitterest parts of this list, I've been able to get used to in the last few weeks, so there's nothing much to say, other than that we always must all predict nine films going forward, no matter what, and that's all there is to it.


Director
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

I predicted: 4/5


Non-binding prediction: Alfonso Cuarón

In case there was any doubt that this was strictly a three-film race, Greengrass failing to land for director was a pretty big tell. Having never thought that Spike Jonze had a prayer here - he wouldn't have even been my prediction 7th place, though that's probably where he ended up - I can't bring myself to call him "snubbed"

Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction: Chiwetel Ejiofor.

No Hanks! I already said that, but it's worth repeating. Bale in makes this the second David O. Russell film in a row to go 4/4 in the acting categories, and is clearly the biggest sign of Hustle's strength: it's got to be between that and 12 Years a Slave at the top, right?


Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction, but you can go ahead and bind me to it: Cate Blanchett.

AKA Blanchett and her four victims. I have a hard time thinking up anything to say about this.


Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction: Jared Leto.

Two-time nominee Jonah Hill, eh? Christ Jesus. I do think he was far better in TWOWS than in Moneyball, so that's something.


Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction: Lupita Nyong'o.

Oprah snubbed! And with Hawkins dropping in semi-unexpectedly, I suddenly have a rooting interest in what was looking like my least-favorite category.


Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave, by John Ridley
Before Midnight, by Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, & Richard Linklater
Captain Phillips, by Billy Ray
Philomena, by Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope
The Wolf of Wall Street, by Terence Winter

I predicted: 5/5

Non-binding prediction: 12 Years a Slave

Nothing surprising here. Glad Before Midnight got something at all, even if it's largely superficial.



Original Screenplay
American Hustle, by David O. Russell and Eric Singer
Blue Jasmine, by Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club, by Craig Borten and Melissa Wallack
Her, by Spike Jonze
Nebraska, by Bob Nelson

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction: American Hustle

Of all the things that Inside Llewyn Davis didn't get, this one burns the most by far. I suspect that all of us care more than the Coens do, but it's still insulting.


Cinematography
The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
Prisoners (Roger Deakins)

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction: Gravity

A shocking miss for 12 Years a Slave. I want to point out that my three favorite living cinematographers and, maybe, my least-favorite living cinematographer are all rubbing shoulders here.


Editing
12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)
American Hustle (Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers)
Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
Dallas Buyers Club (John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger)

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction: Captain Phillips

Clearest indication of Dallas Buyers Club's overall strength, and I though this would have been an incredibly easy get for Thelma Schoonmaker and The Wolf of Wall Street. Apparently I'm not alone in thinking that the film is a bit formless where it shouldn't be, but it's still stunning. She'll have to wait till another year to tie up that record, sadly.


Production Design
12 Years a Slave (Adam Stochausen; Alice Baker)
American Hustle (Judy Becker; Heather Loeffler)
Gravity (Andy Nicholson; Rosie Goodwin)
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin; Beverly Dunn)
Her (K.K. Barrett; Gene Serdena)

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction: The Great Gatsby


For the first time ever, a Middle-Earth film has missed out in this category, and despite The Desolation of Smaug having better design than An Unexpected Journey, in my estimation. At a glance, I'm tempted to call this the strongest category out of them all.


Costume Design
12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)
American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
The Invisible Woman (Michael O'Connor)

I predicted: 3/5

Non-binding prediction: The Great Gatsby

And here we have the one domestic feature category with a nominee I haven't seen, The Invisible Woman. Otherwise, I don't know, nothing else to say. None of the usual left-field choices this category makes, in terms of making something dreadful an Oscar nominee.


Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

I predicted: 2/3

Non-binding prediction: Dallas Buyers Club

Wow. I'm sure somebody was predicting American Hustle would be strong enough for Bale to get in, and yet weak enough to miss here, but I surely don't know that person. It's always a bit disorienting when one's pick to win doesn't even snag a nomination, and of course, with Costume falling short, my thanks to being the place that shitty movies can call themselves Oscar nominees.


Score
The Book Thief (John Williams)
Gravity (Steven Price)
Her (William Butler and Owen Pallett)
Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

I predicted: 3/5

Non-binding prediction: Gravity

An odd but welcome place for Her to pop up. Curiously cozy set of nominees, the more I stare at it.


Song
From Alone Yet Not Alone: "Alone Yet Not Alone"
From Despicable Me 2: "Happy"
From Frozen: "Let It Go"
From Her: "The Moon Song"
From Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom: "Ordinary Love"

I predicted: 2/5

Non-binding prediction: "Let It Go"

Whatever this category move along.


Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

I predicted: 3/5

Non-binding prediction: Inside Llewyn Davis

The Hobbit? Really? Where the hell did that come from?


Sound Editing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction: Gravity

About the same, though I get it a little more here, the dragon voice and all. Congrats to the awesome All Is Lost on its one and only nomination, aka "The Drive Slot"


Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction: Gravity

AKA Gravity and a bunch of dudes who get to put on tuxes and attend a fancy ceremony.


Animated Feature
Despicable Me 2
The Croods
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

I predicted: 4/5

Non-binding prediction: Frozen

I'll be talking about this category later today at The Film Experience.


Foreign Language
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)

I predicted: 3/5

Non-binding prediction: The Great Beauty

I am now particularly mad that I didn't push harder to see The Missing Picture at CIFF last year, but I get the feeling that I'm super-happy for it. Hopefully going to see The Great Beauty very soon.


Documentary Feature
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square

I predicted: 2/5

Non-binding prediction: The Square

Having refused to predict The Act of Killing on account of not wanting to be sad if it missed, I'm of course THRILLED that my pick for the best film of last year could manage an Oscar nomination. It's also the only nominee I've seen, so I can't really say much else.


Documentary Short
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

I predicted: 3/5

Non-binding prediction: Karama Has No Walls

And of course, I've seen none of these.


Animated Short
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom

I predicted: 3/5

Non-binding prediction: Get a Horse!

I'll be talking about this category tomorrow at The Film Experience.


Live-Action Short
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
Helium
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem

I predicted: 2/5

Non-binding prediction: The Voorman Problem

And again, haven't seen any of these, don't really know much about them. But they'll be making their national tour and I shall see them then.